By the end of 2024, the nation may produce 5.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum, up from the current production of 4.8 million bpd, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That would be a record-breaking amount of production from Canada.
Most of the expansion is forecast to come from Alberta’s oilsands, but there will also be increases throughout Western Canada and at offshore sites close to Newfoundland and Labrador.
According to Kevin Birn, head analyst for Canadian oil markets at S&P, “half a million is a lot.” “It’s bigger than many countries produce in the world.”
This year’s reduced total production is partly attributable to the extended maintenance requirements at certain oilsands facilities, which will dramatically increase oil output over the next 12–14 months.
As additional oil is sent from Alberta to the West Coast via the extended Trans Mountain pipeline, the nation’s oil output is expected to reach an all-time high at the same moment. As construction nears completion, the pipeline’s extension will increase its capacity from 300,000 bpd to 890,000 bpd.
Big oilsands corporations, according to Birn, are not increasing their expenditures to extract more oil from the earth; instead, they are figuring out how to maximize the efficiency of their current facilities.
However, he issued a warning, stating that beyond 2024, output growth at this rate may plateau.
“This could be the last really large hurrah before we see a material slowdown in Western Canada supply growth,” Birn said. “We do see this plateauing effect beginning around 2025 and 2026.”
The Terra Nova field off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador may resume operations in the coming year, despite many setbacks.
Canada may account for the majority of the increase in crude oil output worldwide in 2024. About 500,000 barrels per day more oil is forecast to be produced in the nation than in the United States, which is expected to expand by 400,000 barrels per day.
In other places, higher production in Brazil and Guyana may lead to an approximate 400,000 bpd rise from Latin America in the upcoming year.
According to recent research by Deloitte Canada, Canada’s forecasted growth over the next two years is likely to surpass the entire amount gained during the prior five years.
This autumn, the federal government intends to unveil draft legislation that would gradually reduce and limit emissions from the production of oil and gas.
The oilsands provide approximately 11% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, with the remaining oil and natural gas industries making up the remaining 15%.
As output increased somewhat in 2022, overall emissions from oilsands remained unchanged, according to a report published in August by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
